Geopolitics

The Geopolitical Signal Iran war impact: Event Consequence Strait of Hormuz disruption Oil/gas prices up 55% Energy supply uncertainty Nations reassessing fossil fuel dependence UN climate chief statement “Sunlight doesn’t depend on narrow shipping straits” The insight: Energy security arguments are now bipartisan. Previously: Renewables = climate policy Now: Renewables = national security Who’s Winning: Country-Level 🇵🇰 Pakistan: The $120B Pivot Metric Value Fossil fuel savings (2020-2026) $120 billion Projected 2026 savings $63 billion Strategy Solar + battery scale-up How they did it: ...

The Overlooked Counter-Move When analysts discuss AI in warfare, they focus on speed: faster decisions, faster targeting, faster execution. The assumption is that whoever has better AI wins. But there’s a blind spot: adversaries adapt structurally, not just technologically. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has spent two decades building a command structure specifically designed to survive exactly the kind of AI-enabled warfare that Pentagon planners envision. The Centralization Trap Why AI Favors Hierarchies AI excels at: ...

The Question No One’s Asking The Middle East is boiling. Iran-Israel tensions have reached a boiling point. The US is deploying carrier groups. But amidst the headlines, a deeper structural question emerges: Will AI make wars faster—or not? The answer has profound implications for defense, energy, and technology investments. Hypothesis 1: AI Accelerates Warfare The OODA Loop Compression Colonel John Boyd’s OODA loop (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) has governed aerial combat since the 1950s. AI compresses this cycle from minutes to milliseconds. ...